Why do I believe a BTC ETF will occur:
1. The CBOE is not like the Winkelvoss twins or the other groups that attempted to launch an etf last year. We are talking about one of the largest, respected and financially deep exchanges in the US. They have an ongoing relationship with the SEC. Think about this – these people socialize and have known each other for years – they travel in the same circles – it’s just the way the world works. While it’s not a guarantee, the SEC knows this new asset class is coming to fore, who else’s hands would you launch such a product with? I’m sure the list can be counted on one hand.
2. Another sticking point with the SEC was global regulations. Recently Japan’s and South Korea, two of the larger crypto markets in the world, upped their regulations concerning crypto exchanges, so this concerned has been eased.
3. Clients funds will be fully insured in the event of a hack, lost security keys etc. Basically all the issues that could go wrong in handling cryptos will be absorbed by the CBOE. As well as other best practices will be employed.
4. Last year they received permission to launch futures trading, why wouldn’t they received permission to launch the first ETF approval? It’s all part of a progression if you ask me.
5. Recently the SEC launched audits on all the US based crypto exchanges. They wanted to study price manipulations and understand how this market works. This occurred with NASDAQ too in the early 90s. We’ve discussed this on the site already. I believe their motive was to level the playing field to protect the consumer investor (as best as possible) as well as giving the stamp of approval for institutional investors. And without them, this market will not explode. Finally, don’t you think Wall St. sees a new source of revenue by getting their institutional and retail clients on board? The study was inevitable and necessary. It is a good thing.
6. Let’s look at some other factors also contributing how and why I believe the SEC will be opening the spigot to BTC and crypto investments-
A) while Jamie Dimon went on the record as saying he would fire anyone who buys BTC, JP was secretly buying in Europe. I also believe they
are looking to set a trading desk. Oh wait, no one should know that…
B) Goldman Sachs has not only bought an exchange through an investment vehicle but are presently
setting up a crypto trading desk.
C) Susquehanna has also
started a BTC trading desk. They’ve gone on record as saying BTC will be around forever.
So basically you have some of the largest financial firms investing manpower and capital. Who do you think the SEC talks to when investigating this market?
While I grant you that this preponderance of evidence could be wrong, I don’t think so. So that’s my argument…between the 3rd and 4th quarter it will be announced. And this is only the beginning….